Today's Big Game, Super Bowl XLIV and it's Two Premiere Quarterbacks

Nearly every quarterback and every team have tells. I have seen a playoff team quarterback who when in the huddle will often bump his running backs wrist if it is a running play to him. Others will look at the linemen more if it is a running play, receivers if it is a pass. I have seen receivers hold arms differently if they assignment is a block, compared to pass play. Linemen will move to the line faster or slower depending on the play called. Diva-like receivers will actually sulk or slump because they are not getting passes and when the play called isn't designed to go to them.

What I'm looking for is the inconsistencies, like when the formation usually means run and it is a pass. I will often rewind and review what happened prior to the snap several times: sometimes watching in slow motion, other times slightly faster. Then BAM, you see a receiver who sways his arms just a little bit higher when it is a pass play.

If you combine the formation, statistics, and body language it is very reliable. The play is displayed in subtle and not so subtle ways through the players body language.

It is difficult to see this watching television, with the television producers doing quick cuts to several people in between the plays: close ups of the defensive, star players, coaches, fans, etc. The NFL streamed the games on Sunday nights where you could pick your camera to watch the game, which is great for what I look for.

Today's Big Game, Super Bowl XLIV and it's Two Premiere Quarterbacks



Quarterback Drew Brees #9 of the New Orleans Saints points out the defense during the game against the Atlanta Falcons on December 10, 2007 at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, Georgia.

The thing thing I like about the New Orleans offense is their style of football; their formations will likely tell you if it a run or pass. Look for three wide receivers lined up on one side of the ball, it is a pass. Saints play straight ahead football with both their passing and running game. Because of this there is really only one formation that keeps you guessing if it is a run or pass. It is where Brees will line up under center with Bush in the backfield.

Now you no longer have to guess, look no further than Brees' feet. If it is a run they will be horizontal (or close to horizontal) to the line of scrimmage, if it is a pass one foot will be 6+ inches back further. He does this unconsciously, so he can have a precise three steps back and throw... often times you will not be able to see his feet clearly because the camera cuts to the play without much time before the snap, so you will have to look at the angle of his hips because his feet are not shown.

If the Colts show blitz, and it is a pass, Bush is to block: sometimes a chip block, other times a full block. If it is a zone he is to go out about 7 yards from the line of scrimmage and sit down and wait for the ball, in zone he becomes the primary receiver. Man-to-man defensive coverage, and Indy blitzing, one of the outside receivers is the primary receiver. This play will make or break the Saints: Colts have to respect Bush and if they bite on the play action when passing... it will not be good for the Colts defensive. By watching Brees' feet in this one situation could make the difference in the game.



Payton Manning #18 of the Indianapolis Colts calls out a play during the first quarter against the Houston Texans at Lucas Oil Stadium on November 16, 2008 in Indianapolis, Indiana.

The Colts offensive is the exact opposite of the Saints when it comes to formations, disguising their intent, and it is chess match. I have seen the Manning purposely put the ball in the dirt when the receiver turns in (for the forth time) so the fifth time when the receiver turns out and long, the safety is beaten for a touchdown. Manning is the only quarterback who I know who watches game film of himself between the plays to see if he can tell if it is a run or pass, and if he is giving away the play with his body language. It is a good thing the defensive doesn't do the same- the NFL video equipment is designed to watch the play, not in between the plays.

Do not be disappointed, he still can give it away.

When he first came into the NFL he had happy feet when is was in the shotgun. He has worked to control this. However he has a knee that he has had two operations on and I'm sure it bothers him occasionally, especially after some hits. If he is playing on a "tweaked" knee, and it is a pass play he will do a little trot, it is his unconscious way of testing is knee before dropping back and passing.

You do not have to wait for a "tweaked" knee to tell what is going on, you have to look no further than his communication with his team. They run a no huddle offense, and it works most of the time. The draw back is he still has to communicate with his team and there are times through the communication we can know what the play is. He himself admits it can quickly become a game of I know, and they know, and maybe we will both adjust, and maybe we won't.

If he starts shouting out different commands with more than 10 seconds on the play clock he is likely changing the play. If you can see the game clock on the screen (they show it when it is down to 5 seconds and he is shouting out commands it is likely to be fake commands- or commands to tell his team when the ball will be snapped). When he changes the play, look at how many defenders are in the box (in the area between his tackles and/or tight ends), if there are 8, he has audibled for a run play. When he changes the play it is much more likely to be a run play.

Also watch the way he interacts with his eyes with the receivers. Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark are seasoned receivers and are expected to read the defenses as well as Manning. If a safety is moving backward 3-5 yards, and it is a zone defense both the receiver and Manning are to see this, and they will both look at each other, for a beat longer than normal, in acknowledgement that they both see the same thing and the receiver will change his route to go up field and get the ball in the middle of the zone/field. They are looking for specific match ups and situations they can capitalize on; it is all about their extensive pregame preparations.

Once or twice a game he will really start yelling and giving signals to the receivers, like a peacock. Then the play occurs and it is a run play, and you say to yourself all that for a simple run play. At times, he can oversell it; he is louder and more animated. Be warned if you see too much peacocking, it is likely a run play.

Do not be discouraged if this doesn't seem easy to spot at first, there probably hasn't been more than a handful of Colts games I haven't seen in the last ten years, and the tells are subtle. Like how you can tell if a family member is lying to you because you know them so well...

That's it for the Body language part of the post; because I do not want to get started with the receivers and linebackers and how they give things away...

Now my onto my prediction for the Super Bowl

Most passing plays only last 3 seconds for the Colts. What is different this year is the play of Pierre Garcon and Auston Collie; they have extended the field and the number of seconds of the typical play, which has in turn extended Manning's skill at reading the defensive. It used to be (with the exception of the occasional long ball on first down, when they first got possession) Manning operated in a space of about 25 yards, this was in relation to the speed of the receivers and the amount of yardage they could cover in that time. With the extension of the field it has caused defenses to line up more spread out, up and down the field. This is a different style than the Saints are used to playing, their defensive backs like to line up closer to the line of scrimmage- more than most defenses in the NFL, if they continue do this in today's game Manning will be able to tear apart the Saints coverage.

In every playoff game that the Colts lost, there were interceptions. Interceptions were caused by the defensive disguising what they were doing and Manning not able adapt. This had become less of a problem the last two years, but if we see two interceptions in the first half the Colts may be in trouble, and Manning will have to change his plan for the second half.

The Saints will be able to move the ball up and down the field relatively easy, because of the Colts defensive style- designed to prevent the big plays but allow 8-12 yards gains at times. The Colts defensive players are fast so it could come down to Bush's ability to hit the hole fast and make them miss one or two tackles.

Saints receivers will play a big part of the game, like I mentioned earlier, they have a line up where 3 receivers are all lined up on the same side. They are in different order each time which confuses the defensive and provides an opportunity for Bress to find the mismatch(s). It is designed for quick passes, and the safety has a hard time because he is usually several steps behind the receivers since there are three receivers in the same 10-15 yard area of the field.

I think when the 4th quarter starts it will likely be a situation where we all will be thinking that the winner of the game will be the team who has the ball last. If Saints go to the prevent defensive too early, they will lose.



Grounds crewmen check the NFL emblem freshly painted onto the 50 yard line at Sun Life Stadium where preparations are underway for Sunday's Pro Bowl game.

Colts win by 10 because they score twice in the last 3 minutes of the game...◦

Today's Big Game, Super Bowl XLIV and it's Two Premiere Quarterbacks