Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Boston Marathon Bombing Early Profile

Update: I got it wrong.  The bombers turn out to be a new breed of bombers to the United States.  They fit more to a profile of the London transport bombers.  I thought it was more along the lines of a Timothy McVeigh. Some things that make these two bombers different is their ability to cause so much turmoil with so little knowledge.  In fact the older brother had just enough knowledge to be dangerous.  Knowledge of a pressure cooker bomb, but placing it so the lid is in an upright position...  no plan for the aftermath... turning it into a crime spree when the police were getting close...

Because of strong interest in this area I will post a few thoughts that are only my thoughts based on my skills and experience in this area.

He acted alone.  He used a timer on the two bombs, and set the timers at the same time a very short distance from the blast areas, likely in a port-a-potty.  He could have been seen carrying only one nondescript bag, within the bag there would have been another smaller bag, each bags carrying one of the bombs- the smaller bag left at the first blast site. He likely was carrying a water bottle in one hand, and the bag was likely filled with another water bottle and a few tee shirts to pad the contents.  He was wearing a t-shirt  that contained some words on it, that most people would not take the time to read but if you read it, it would be cynical or offensive.  He was still carrying the water bottle after leaving the second bomb.  When the first bomb went off he would have been walking away, he would turn around  to see the smoke, then turn and continue walking away from the blast sites. He would have been no further away than 500 yards from the second blast site. His exiting the area had been planned, and he used public transportation to leave the area and would have been out of the area within 5 minutes of the first blast.

The bomber was a lone wolf who served in the military in conflict zones, he had left the military between 2-1 years ago.  His unit experienced loss of life and serious injuries as a result of roadside bombs. He would have some resentment to the government and especially politicians  He would be between 25-31 male, still keeping his hair short.  He grew up outside of Boston, in an area close to Boston, but considered rural in many ways.  He does not currently have a job, but has had several since leaving the service, and would go weeks and month between jobs. He is likely living with friends or extended family.  He is not well educated (beyond earning high school diploma and taking several specialized trainings which he volunteered for in the military), and if he attended anything beyond high school it was likely at a community or for-profit college.   His friends and family would best be described as good working-class people.

He DID NOT want to cause as much loss of life as possible, by choosing the location he did.  Had he wanted that he would have set the bombs near the starting line where people are runners are more dense.  He wanted normal Americans (like he was before his deployment) to feel like he now does.  He is mentally unstable to the extent he never feels he will be normal again.  He suffers PTSD  and feels people do not understand what it is like to be in Afghanistan or him.  He feels disenfranchised with America and its people.

He had no immediate plans of another attack, but if he is not caught in the next 3-4 months he will again plan another attack as he once again feels alone and misunderstood..  The devices will be the same but the location and situation will be different.

To those around him, he will appear different since the bombs went off.  He will be more energized and engaging.  He will endlessly talk about the bombings with all those he knows.  He will be glued to coverage, and out of character will even read several newspapers about the bombings.  His appetite will have returned.  He will comment on the law enforcement actions, and his comments if analyzed, will be given as him as the expert in such things and be unfavorable to law enforcement.  He will not talk about the victims, in his mind they all were collateral damage. Within two weeks (if not caught) he will slowly begin to return to his "normal self" before the bombings.  As time goes on, he will be more agitated as he realizes nothing has really changed.

If a sketch or picture (no matter how blurry) is released  he will begin changing his appearance.  Likely will let facial hair grow out.  Get a short hair cut, in stick square military fashion.

There are only two ways he will be caught.  One someone close to him will suspect him because his change in behavior and will contact authorities. Evidence from the area and/or pictures and video will surface. For this reason it is very important for those with video and picture within 500 feet of the blast area especially in the direction away from the blast sites be turned over to police- You may think you were too far away from the actual blast site for what you have to be important, but your were not, it is important for pictures and video be turn over to the police.



Aili said... What do you think of what (and how) the aunt was saying?